The subject title of this piece belongs to TechGear’s Tim Conneally, who is one of the very few writers who seem to have noticed the glaring flaw in the basic premise of the survey by ChangeWave Research which asked consumers which “e-readers” they were likely going to buy this holiday and presented them with the choices of the iPad, Kindle, Nook, Sony, A Smart, and “Other.”
The survey conclusions were regurgitated without any analysis by about 95% of the news stories on the first day.
The iPad is the portable equvalent of a small computer that runs multimedia apps, and only secondarily is it used for reading e-books. Has anyone ever expected that it would sell less than a dedicated e-reader which is by design a niche product?
Never mind that although it was roundly predicted that the Kindle (UK: K3) would be ‘killed’ or even entombed by theiPad (or, earlier, by the Nook) by the end of 2010, the Kindle is an item for which demand is so great since April that columnists often mention the error of those predictions and the now-obvious happy co-existence of the two types of very popular gadgets.
Add that the consumers surveyed include those who would have little interest particularly in getting an e-reader and are drawn to the web-surfing, video, and games features of the iPad (per just about every other survey I’ve seen, most put the e-reading feature last).
In other words, does any serious survey pit two entirely different types of gadgets against each other and declare a ‘loss’ for the one that offers one finely tuned capability at considerably less cost for those wanting that one capability?
The basic question (as asked in this survey) of what “e-reader” a person might be interested in buying assumes that each participant is actually looking for an e-reader rather than showing an interest if asked — though many will certainly be interested in an all-in-one. Should they stop making dedicated, inexpensive printers because all-in-one printer/fax/scanners gaining ground on the less-costly, dedicated ones ?
Should Canon stop making sub-compact cameras because the iPhone has a very good little camera in it? Would a serious survey ask people to choose between an iPhone camera and dedicated cameras?
Actually, the comparisons are based on expected hardware sales rather than on the actual way the hardware would be used.
TECHGEAR/TIM CONNEALLY’S PERSPECTIVE ON THIS
Here’s some of what TechGear had to say about the survey:
‘ … ChangeWave said Amazon’s Kindle holds a “rapidly diminishing lead” over the Apple iPad in the e-reader market, and that the iPad’s overall presence in the space has doubled since August.
[Yes, the iPad sold 3 million in 80 days — and after that, Amazon’s can’t keep Kindles in enough supply for shipping to other countries without large delays.]
According to buying intent stated by consumers, ChangeWave also concludes the iPad “will be the biggest beneficiary of the expanding e-Reader market this holiday season, followed by the Amazon Kindle.”
Naturally, this has led to headlines today declaring that the Kindle is somehow “losing” to the iPad.
Unfortunately, the entire survey is based on an unsound premise, because it seeks to compare hardware e-readers with software e-readers.
. . .
Interestingly, the survey goes on to illustrate exactly why the iPad and smartphones should not be placed in the same category as hardware e-readers.ChangeWave asked consumers “which of the following types of content do you currently read with your e-book reader?”
Unsurprisingly, the majority of Kindle users said they’re reading e-books, while iPad users said they tend to read newspapers, magazines, blogs and RSS feeds.In short, this shows not that the iPad is stealing market share from the Kindle. But instead that consumers who read e-books are buying e-readers, and consumers who read colorful and web-derived content are buying tablets. ‘
Yes, and one tablet in particular, but people are really taking to the Samsung Galaxy 7″ despite Steve Job’s insistence that people are not interested in that size tablet (rather like his earlier insistence that the Amazon Kindle was not going to work because “people don’t read anymore.” And there is coming a rain of capable tablets in a month or two.
COMMENTERS TO THE TECHGEAR STORY
Here are some really blunt and insightful comments to Conneally’s story:
‘ ___
By Frankwick:
From a purist point of view the ipad (I own one) is a horrid e-reader. It is too heavy to hold for long periods of time. Plus, the screen is way way way too glossy in certain places which makes reading a pain in the eye socket. As far as ibooks goes, it is miniscule compared to the nook and Kindle stores. Then there is the cost of the ipad – OUCH! ‘___
By skapig
E-reader versus tablet appliance with a very large difference in price between them. Not the most well-conceived study, but the point is really to get the name of the research firm out there by pushing something with these popular keywords down the wire.[ Exactly what came to my mind because it is such a carelessly designed study, but today’s focus on getting stories out quickly more than anything else means the survey makers will get their name out there when stories are done for “first” announcement and then auto-duplicated wildly rather than the news-seconders actually looking at the story to see if there’s anything there.
___
By alan@statistixl.com
Nice to finally find a breath of sanity in this debate 🙂 I use both and they are definitely horses for courses. The Kindle is vastly superior for prolonged reading and reading text (it’s much lighter, easier on the eyes, has better batter[y] life and enjoys sunlight). The iPad is much better for browsing the web and flicking through items that require colour. ‘
In the meantime, ChangeWave itself describes the following questions answered, in its brief online report
‘ Going forward, e-Reader demand remains strong for the holidays, with 5% of respondents saying they are Very Likely to buy an e-Reader and 10% Somewhat Likely over the next 90 days. ‘
Here’s their full Consumer Electronics Report ($1,500).
Via Andrys Basten’s A Kindle World blog
Yeah, these are the types of “studies” publishing execs keep reading, then sitting around the table and smiling, patting themselves on the back for getting in bed with Steve Jobs. Meanwhile, the rest of the world (meaning, readers and writers) are understanding how real human beings are actually using real devices to real real books.
Scott Nicholson
Call it whatever name you like, if really looking at the category from a ‘purist’ standpoint, then an eReader is whatever you use to read eBooks with, be it a chunky 90’s PC or a svelte dedicated gizmo.
At times I view my laptop as an eReader… and sometimes it’s a cookbook, research station, card catalog, focus group, television, video-conference room, editor’s desk, photo gallery… et cetera. My laptop could conceivably be included in surveys in all of those categories.
So, If folks use the iPad as an eReader then it is an eReader, and as such the information on personal usage should be included in eReader surveys. If a more honed survey about OTA (Other Than Apple) products is what some folks are after, then perhaps the title of said survey should be altered:
“Survey about Dedicated eReading Devices But Not Including the iPad”.
On a secondary note, I hardly think this issue is something to get worked up about.
First off, I haven’t read the ChangeWave survey so I’m not directly commenting on that.
Meridith, I agree with your statement about what defines an eReader, but that wasn’t my takeaway from this article. A question of “which of these things that could be used an ereader are you likely to buy?” is very different from “assuming you are going to buy an ereader, which one are you going to buy?”
To shift the context slightly, what if someone were to ask me which Blu-Ray player I was buying? I would probably respond that I was buying a laptop or desktop. However, my response would merely be predicated on the fact that I’m not interested in buying such a device, but I am interested in buying a device that may have the capability to work as such.
So, if you ask a bunch of people that read one or two books a year (at most) which eReader they are likely to buy, then the answer probably isn’t Kindle…
My iPhone is my ereader, and it works extremely well.
I’d go for an iPad as extra hardware because it’s a multi-use product, thus hugely more useful than a Kindle.
Having said that, if Apple cares to release a lighter weight, more compact version, that would probably be a better bet for me than the present model.
Meredith,
In that case that you term ‘purist’ (I agree, with all that usually goes with that), then the iPhone, which many more of the people I know use for reading their Kindle books (rather than on the larger and more expensive iPad which they normally don’t have with them) should have had its own named option rather than having been lumped among the ‘Others’ —
They have a pretty good installed user-base and people are buying the new iPhone in a huge way and will continue to do so during the holiday season. I would if they’d just hook up with Verizon already. But it may be that the Droid 2 may be my ‘next e-reader’ or maybe one of the Galaxy’s.
Another recent survey (Forresters maybe?) said that more people choose to read ebooks (when they do want to do that) on their laptops than on any other device!
That received a lot of comment too. With your definition it counts as an “ereader” that might then be considered taking market share away from all the other devices.
I do read my travel and photography books (they usually have a lot of color illustrations that I want to see) on my netbook.
I mentioned this discrepancy on my blog Wednesday. A recent study by GfK MRI data showed that only 76% of iPad owners actually use the tablet for reading books, whereas, of course, 100% of Kindle owners do. That skews the e-reader market share figures considerably in Amazon’s direction, making the ChangeWave study’s 47/32 split more like 60/20 or so. But the point that the surveys themselves are flawed in comparing unlike devices is well taken, and hopefully will be noted by those responsible.
Thanks for this piece. I’ve been very annoyed by the Kindle-killer talk, and I don’t even own a Kindle.
Since market share is in question I’ll post this link again, it is the google trends comparison of all e-book services.
I believe it is the most accurate (or at least most comprehensive and unbiased) measure of e-book market share. The only e-book service that may not be fairly represented is Sony reader, due to its two-prong name.
world:
http://preview.tinyurl.com/3x28u9v
US only:
http://preview.tinyurl.com/2eh3cy2
Including Google Editions (flop so far, but should change upon release)
http://preview.tinyurl.com/28vj2ab
The ChangeWave Research is 100% correct and the argument set out in this article does not persuade me otherwise.
The kindle is a multi use product and the iPad is a multi use product. The differentiation is irrelevant, misleading and a distraction. The iPad and any other device that people use to read their eBooks or other ePublications should be correctly included in any survey of devices and smart publishers should pay attention. The idea that it should for some reason be excluded makes no sense and anyone in the publishing business who goes down that road will imho find himself on the path to a success-challenged future … 🙂
This is exactly the point I was trying to make when I commented on another article quoted here at TeleRead earlier this week.
Can anyone really believe that the consumer looking PRIMARILY for an e-reader will pick the iPad over the Kindle? Do you also believe that someone looking PRIMARILY for a multi-purpose tablet will choose the Kobo over the Galaxy? Come on! They are different devices aimed at totally different audiences!
You want a study that gives some legitimate statistics, compare dedicated e-readers, (that MAY have a few other-than-book apps), to other like devices. THAT’S an e-reader study.
Once this holiday season is over and the plethora of new table computers are out in the world, do a study of tablet computers, (that MAY have e-reader apps). THAT’s a tablet computer study. And, as someone who is interested in purchasing a table computer in the next few months, one that I would actually find useful.
As I said in my other comment, trying to compare dedicated e-readers and table computers is essentially like trying to compare freezers with refrigerators that have freezer compartments. They’ll both keep your food cold, but they are designed with different audiences in mind.
I have just been given a Nook Color and find that its a lemon compared to the only other gadget that can compare (iPad) because of its colour and most importantly Apple is more customer focused than B&N…..they (as do Kindle) accept international credit cards and so the gadgets and their ebooks get bought by a lot more people round the world. I live in the UK and can’t buy ebooks from B&N so my gift will be of no use to me unless they change this policy soon…..I am going to trade it in for an iPad which might cost a bit more but will also give me a lot more. So who wins….??!