In The Great Kindle Numbers Debate, the latest wrinkle is a search trend chart created via Google.
It suggests that the iPhone (red) and the Blackberry (orange) are far more popular as search fodder than the Kindle (blue). Click on the graph for more details. I spotted this gem via the Reading 2.0 list. Even if just a fraction of iPhone buyers end up with e-books, the numbers could be impressive.
Meanwhile consider the record from the past few days:
- Actual Amazon execs are questioning the 240K sakes figure spread by Technocrunch a few weeks ago, as well as a Citigroup analyst’s prediction of perhaps 380,000 sales by the end of ’08. Could some Kindles boosters be confusing the number of Kindles made with the number sold? I’d urge you to read a Reg article and follow a relevant link to the Seattle PI. I touched on these matters earlier, but am repeating them with a bit more detail. Update, 10:47 p.m.: See eReader/Fictionwise co-owner Steve Pendergrast’s observations on the extent of the discrepancy between reality and the estimates. Needless to say, if Amazon people want to offer their own interpretations, I’ll be interested in hearing from them.
- As already noted here, one publisher says his Kindle sales are slumping. Meanwhile, Steve says: "I don’t think it is a coincidence that the Apple App store also launched at precisely the same time as this reported decline in Kindle content sales." Please note this isn’t the entire picture—see a Google Trends comparison between "Kindle," "ebook" and "Sony Reader." But it bears worth watching to see if there will indeed be a trend, rather than the experience of just one vendor.
- Similarly as mentioned here, New York Times sales for the Kindle aren’t exactly gargantuan.
It’s still too early to draw definite conclusions, and I remain convinced that the Kindle will be a success even if it could well be less of one than the boosters are counting on. But the thing is, this. The real action will be on cellphones—just as earlier it was in PDAs—even if merely a fraction of purchasers use the phones to enjoy e-books. That’s because the cellphone numbers are so huge, perhaps 100-million units for the biggest winners.
Yes, cellphones have smaller screens than the Kindle, but they’re something you carry around everywhere. And beyond that, some people are afraid of Kindle format/DRM lock-ins even if nonDRMed material is available.
As I wrote earlier today, I sense a Kindle tipping point might be reached with the new model. Sony certainly seems to be napping. As usual, Apple, etc.
Is NYT pay for Kindle? Probably explains it. People will put up with desktops/notebooks for free viewing. Probably while at work!
Hi,
David I know you’re trying to be neutral here and I appreciate that, but the Amazon execs are not simply questioning the figures, they are outright saying that the figures are “extremely high” and that the analyst projections (presumably Mahaney’s since his are by far the highest) are “unreasonable”. They threw 55-gallon-drum sized buckets of water on the estimates.
I don’t know what “extremely high” means to you, but to me it means the numbers are not even close to reality, they’re off by a multiple of some kind and not just a few percent high.
My own private analysis still says there were about 50k units in the field in mid-summer and perhaps there will be 100k units by end of year. This is very consistent with what the Amazon execs are saying.
In the ebook world those are still very good numbers for a dedicated device, historically high numbers in fact, so don’t get me wrong. Gemstar only reached those kinds of figures after several years of effort.
But compared to iphone this range of units, 50 to 100k, is clearly already well behind the number of people who are reading on Apple’s handhelds. eReader has already seen 200,000 ebooks uploaded to eReader for iphone in just 45 days, and it is not slowing down. And we are only one of several reading apps at this point, with more being fielded every week it seems.
-Steve P.
Hi, Steve, I linked to your analysis via an update from the main post.
You’re right about our efforts to be fair to Amazon, although in this case I’ve been lighter on detail than I wanted for a simple reason—namely, that I had and have a book deadline to make.
Keep commenting, Steve. And if you want to appear the main part of the blog, that’ll be great, just so you’re newsy and, yes, opinionated. Your byline will let people put things in context. And I really like your analytical approach. I just wish I’d had time today to do more of the same. On another day I could have!
Same offer applies to Amazon, though the people there haven’t exactly rushed to accept the invitation. Good on you for caring to speak out!
Am totally with you on the importance of phones vs. dedicated readers in the market. Most of the media still don’t get it. They’re too infatuated with boxes.
Thanks,
David
Mike, the NYT is $14 a month on the Kindle. That’s $168 a year or more than half the $260 net price of the Kindle bought with the credit-card discount plugged in.
Thanks,
David
David writes:
> the NYT is $14 a month on the Kindle.
> That’s $168 a year
Just for sake of comparison, that’s about half the cost of home delivery of the dead tree edition, and about twice the cost of the (now discontinued) premium online subscription.
I’d actually prefer to read the Times with my iPod Touch. Love the content price: $0. Smaller screen but color.
Thanks,
David
No argument there. I find it interesting, though, that they’re charging twice as much to read their content on a Kindle as they did to read it on a computer before they stopped charging. I guess it’s a good example of two key factors in marketing: perceived value (portability) and customer demographics (folks who pay high prices for dedicated e-readers won’t balk at paying a higher price for content.)
Are there any statistics on how the Kindle is doing relative to other readers? I would love to see how my Cybook ebooks reader compares with the Kindle in terms of search popularity (although that wouldn’t affect my love for the Cybook… but it would be interesting to see the difference). Any ideas?
Well, that explains the rotten NYT sub rate on Kindle.
>>>My own private analysis still says there were about 50k units in the field in mid-summer
It was Palm’ Donna Dubinsky who is quoted in the Pogue book about Palm as saying, “Anyone can move 50,000 units of anything.” In order words, that’s about the maximum momentum of FAIL.
Sara: The informal consensus seems to be that the Kindle is decidedly outselling the Sony. By how much? Hard to say. And where does the Cybook fit in? I suspect that both it and the iLiad would lag behind the others, but this is strictly conjecture. I’ll welcome other people’s observations.
Mike: Nothing definitive re NYT. We can just guess. Maybe people just don’t want to pay for what they can read for free.
Thanks,
David