It’s annual prognostication time when folks like me stick out their necks and try to predict the future. I invite you to join in the fun. Brush up your crystal ball and share your publishing predictions for 2011 in the comments field below.
Earlier today, Jeff Rivera over at MediaBistro interviewed me for my ten book publishing predictions for 2011.
I’ll list five below, and then I encourage you to click over to Mediabistro for the full ten in his interview, Publishing Predictions for 2011 from Smashwords.
If 2010 was the year ebooks went mainstream in the U.S., 2011 will be the year indie ebook authors go mainstream. We’ve already seen this start to happen with some tremendous indie ebook author breakouts in 2010. I wrote about Smashwords author Brian S. Pratt a few weeks ago.
So here are five predictions for 2011:
1. Ebook sales rise, unit consumption surprises – Ebooks sales will approach 20% of trade book revenues on a monthly basis by the end of 2011 in the US, yet the bigger surprise is that ebooks will account for one third or more of unit consumption. Why? Ebooks cost less and early ebook adopters read more.
2. Agents write the next chapter of the ebook revolution – Agents, serving the economic best interests of the best-selling authors, will bring new credibility to self publishing by encouraging authors to proactively bypass publishers and work directly with ebook distribution platforms. Agents will use these publishing platforms for negotiating leverage against large publishers. The conversation will go something like this: “You’re offering my author only 15-20% list on ebooks when I can get them 60-70% list working direct with an ebook distributor likeSmashwords or a retailer like Amazon?”
3. More big authors reluctant to part with digital rights – Indie ebook publishing offers compelling advantages to the author. The economics are better (see #2) and the publishing cycle times are faster (an ebook manuscript can be uploaded today and achieve worldwide distribution in minutes or days, not years). Ebooks also offer greater publishing flexibility (shorts, full length, bundles, free books), and the opportunity to reach more readers with lower cost (yet still higher-profit) books. The advantages will entice more professional authors to self-publish some or all of their future catalog, and all of their reverted-rights catalog.
4. Self Publishing goes from option of last resort to option of first resort among unpublished authors – Most unpublished authors today still aspire to achieve the perceived credibility and blessing that comes with a professional book deal. Yet the cachet of traditional publishing is fading fast. Authors with finished manuscripts will grow impatient and resentful as they wait to be discovered by big publishers otherwise preoccupied with publishing celebrity drivel from Snooki, Justin Bieber and the Kardashians. Meanwhile, the break-out success of multiple indie author stars will grab headlines in 2011, forcing many unpublished authors off the sidelines. As unpublished authors bypass the slush pile, publishers lose first dibs on tomorrow’s future stars.
5. Ebook prices to fall – It’s all about supply and demand. Demand is surging, but supply will overwhelm demand. Average ebook prices will decline, despite attempts by Agency 5 publishers to hold the line. The drop will be fueled by the oversupply of books, abundance of low-cost or free non-book content, influx of ultra-price-sensitive readers who read free first, fierce competition for readership, and digitization of reverted-rights and out-of-print books. Indie authors, since they earn 60-70% retail price, can compete at price points big publishers can’t touch.
Read all ten of my predictions in the full interview over at Mediabistro, and please share your own predictions in the comments below.
Via the Smashwords blog
I wish you had said something about interoperability. Kobo, Amazon and others are championing anywhere-access platforms where you can read even drm’d books on multiple devices and venues. This will be big, and I think we will see the I-app sink, fast, as customers decline to be locked down to one platform or device. I have exactly one I-app book, a cookbook, and it will be my last. I paid for the iPhone version, but it looks terrible on the iPad, and instead of releasing the update as an iOS universal app, they released it as a new iPad-only version, meaning I would have to pay again if I wanted to view this already paid for content on the iPad too. Utter fail, Mark Bittman! That’s the last e-cookbook I buy in app form!
As a longtime reader of Mark Coker’s blog, and a Smashwords.com author, I can attest that his eBook industry predictions tend to be spot on. Some of his 2011 predictions are already a reality, though most folks might not know it. I’ve authored many non-fiction works that were traditionally published. Two years ago I decided to switch gears and get my epic fantasy stories into print. Despite my positive experiences in the non-fiction arena, after hearing innumerable horror stories about fictional works taking years to see print, if one could sell them at all, I chose to forego the traditional route (see Mark’s Prediction #4) and become an “independent” author, as have hundreds of other authors in the last few years. With the advent of publishers such as Smashwords and Amazon that cater to Indie authors, and the burgeoning availability of reasonably priced professional editing services, book formatters, and cover artists, the barriers that kept Indie authors from competing with the traditionally published have dropped. As a result, the publishing world is evolving from a closed industry dominated by a handful of companies to a free and open market where, over time, all those with talent, not just those fortuitous enough to get the right manuscript in front of the right person at the right time, will have to opportunity to succeed.
glenn g. thater
author of the harbinger of doom saga
http://www.glenngthater.com
Very solid predictions, Mark. The momentum is building and there surely is no stopping it now. Maybe the traditional publishers will get with the program soon enough to suffer little pain; but I doubt it. Right now I’m trying to figure out where to put my money to take best advantage of the changes in motion. Let me know if you think to take smashwords plc, won’t you? :0)
The third book in The Price Of Freedom sequences will be titles The Invisible Hand, to be published at smashwords April/May 2011
As an author on Smashwords, I have to say that this is the future of books. Mark Coker has built a platform that is open to everyone, allowing consumers to make choices instead of big publishers. The reactionary nature of the big publishers has meant that they seek books similar to the latest hit, instead of seeking creative new ideas. Smashwords and platforms like it change the game.
Kyle W. Bell
http://smashwords.com/profile/view/kylebell
Indie publishing is the future and Smashwords leads the way. They have a great distribution channel, the 60-70% of list payout to the author is astounding, and the flexibility the author is given equals freedom. Support independent publishing! It will be where you find your next favorite book.
Scott Semegran
https://www.smashwords.com/profile/view/scottsemegran
My predictions for 2011 are that:
1) Bricks and mortar book stores will continue to close, but the trend will become noticeable and will be reported on in the mainstream media.
2) High quality eBook only publishers will appear in the market. These might be ‘imprints’ of existing publishers. These publishers will cater to bestselling authors who want to re-release their older works and/or try releasing a new book as an eBook only. Unlike Smashwords and Amazon, these publishers will provide editing, layout, cover art, and all of the services provided by major print publishers.
Gary
Smashwords does look like part of the future to me too. My only hesitation with Mr Coker’s predictions are with the issue of self publishing. I believe he underestimates the problem that this brings to readers in terms of filtering and quality control. The average reader is short of time. He is keen to read but doesn’t want to waste the limited amount of time he has in his life. I would suggest that the lure of ready filtered writings offered by established publishers will continue to win out for that very reason. “Self publishing” implies anyone can write their eBook and offer it for sale without needing to have it edited by a pro or accepted or rejected for being good of rubbish.
For ‘self publishing’ to succeed in a big way, imho what is needed is some kind of minimum standard; some kind of gate keeper that keeps poor quality writing off the shelves because even a few poor quality tomes have the potential to lose many many customers for indies and sites like Smashwords.
I might amend item #2: It won’t be agents writing the next chapter of ebooks, it’ll be marketers. Many agents will probably become (or be replaced by) marketers, offering their services to writers who see no need for publishers or traditional agents, but who need help piercing the fog of obscurity and getting noticed.
As the eBook and its low-entry publishing model grows in popularity the print book will grow in prestige. Print books will be the kind of book that is regarded again as art both in substance and form. eBooks may give readers a taste, but any author whose really got a viable book will lust to see their name in hard print more than ever.
Patrick Henry said: “I know no way of judging the future but by the past.” In the past, predictions about the future of ebooks have been pretty much dead wrong.
So, my prediction for the future is that most of the predicters will be wrong—including me.
After having 2 books published by small presses, and now 2 as eBooks, it still remains – traditional print, or ebook – the marketing is and will be the focus for success. Also, simply because anyone can get an ebook published by Smashwords or others, the quality will suffer unless standards by eBook houses are raised as to writing and editing. The pricing average will drop even from the average of $3.20 at present and thus the price has not been nor will be the determining factor re eBook sales. All of this, however, will prompt the “big boys” in publishing to offer a higher royalty. In time.
Those in the book marketing business will improve their support/marketing/outreach programs and all will benefit. I think. Maybe.
Alfred Stites
Author: What Happened to America After WWII, the 112 Year Old Man Speaks Out!..
Having had two books printed by small presses, and two eBooks in the past several years it still remains that marketing must be the focus. The prices will come down somewhat from the average of $3.20, but this will not effect the sale of eBooks. Anyone under $5.00 will be accepted by most readers.