Wonder why I predicted 2006 would be the break-out year for e-books? It’s because of statements like this one from yesterday’s Seattle Times Business and Technology section:
This week Microsoft and Intel are announcing that the first generation of UMPCs will go on sale later this year. They’re expected to cost between $500 to $800. Microsoft expects 100 million will be sold by 2008. The device was developed under the code name Origami.
100 million carryaround computers. With screens ideal for reading books. Think about that for a minute. A lot of opportunities for people to wish they had a book with them. And there they are, carrying around a perfect device for reading.
Of course, people will be able to pick their own desired features, not mine:
[The machines will] have screens from 5 to 8 inches across and controlled, in part, by a stylus. Later models may have touch-screen controls and come with or without keyboards, in different shapes and sizes….
Manufacturers and analysts say the key is to make the devices cheap, simple and nifty.
To sell that many devices, there will have to be the kind of variety that appeals to all kinds of people, including those that insist on simplicity. Intel, incidentally, says that devices will begin to appear with a few weeks. And Microsoft’s chief blogger, Robert Scoble, points out that “there isn’t just one [Origami], by the way.”
The article justifies the prediction (actually made by Microsoft) by identifying two trends in our always-connected world: first, that these could become “the next must-have digital accessory, … a new way for people to stay plugged in without having to lug around a laptop, cellphone and iPod.” And second, it quoted Nokia’s Ari Jaaksi as pointing out that “there are 600 million households with broadband connectivity, and over half of the new broadband customers opt for Wi-Fi, [so] more and more people are living in this Wi-Fi bubble. There’s clearly a market opportunity to offer experiences and devices within that bubble.”
Let’s see. Companies like Microsoft, Nokia, Intel and Sony are putting out products intended for e-reading or perfect for e-reading by happenstance. Don’t you think e-reading is going to boom?
The photo used with this blog was taken by CNET editors who were shown various UMPC prototypes by Intel today (March 7, 2006). You can see the full-size image at news.com.com/2300-1044_3-6046778-1.html. And thanks to Ari for his passing reference to the Seattle Times that led to my seeing the story!
Without the battery life, they are little more than toys – or laptops with less functionality – and will never sell.
battery schmattery, i’m never away from an outlet that long.
but yes, these still might be “toys”, if they are badly crippled.
let’s see how much functionality they’ll give us for the price…
-bowerbird
Gee, I’ll bet that’s a first — someone accusing Intel and Microsoft of concocting a toy rather than a computer.
Probably wouldn’t hurt sales anyway. People are sure more likely to believe the advertising than any facts that might emerge.
Anyway, Intel is putting its low-power reputation on the line here, as well as indicating that battery life in the later models will significantly increase. And I won’t be surprised if prices actually do fall towards $500 if they sell in the quantities they believe they will.
(Now the Nokia 770 — 6 hours’ e-book reading on a single charge [wifi and bluetooth radios turned off] and discounted to $309. Already shipping.)
Looks like a lot of the same hype MS had for tablet PCs. If they get this device at $300 or $350, fine. But if they come in at $800, its DOA.
Brian, I’m sure you’re right that there’s a lot of hype in this. And that these devices will be price sensitive. But there are lots of differences with the TabletPC’s.
For one thing, they came in at three-to-four times the price we are talking here. For another, they didn’t really fill a niche, but competed rather strangely against laptops. (“It has a keyboard so it IS a laptop, plus you can use it as a legal pad!”)
We’re coming in now with years and years of experience with desktops, laptops and PDAs. And from all that experience, or should I say mounting frustration, we know what they don’t do well. And these ultra-mobiles, these internet tablets, hit right at that — the sweetest spot being instant-on web access for browsing and email when you have 3 to 10 minutes and you’re not right at your computer.
If you read the news reports, you’ll see the comparisons of the busy mom and the busy executive being the prime profile. If you know either, you know exactly what they’re talking about. (My wife’s best email time is a super-small window when she’s in the kitchen and everything is started and nothing is done yet. No way she can go upstairs and check email then. But with an internet tablet … )
We also have years more adaptation to cell phones, which freed us from the stationary phone call. These tablets free us from the stationary PC. (I repeat Ari Jaaksi’s argument, from his blog: Telephone –> cellphone; PC –> 770.)
Plus the 600 million people with broadband and the ever-increasing percentage that have WiFi.
None of those aspects applied to TabletPCs. That may all have been hype, but I think in this case, Microsoft is reporting what it’s discovering, not what it’s trying to make happen.
Does that mean 100 million devices will be sold? Well, why not? Aren’t there something like 800-900 million cellphones out there? A one-to-nine ratio isn’t all that aggressive, do you think?
roger said:
> Does that mean 100 million devices will be sold? Well, why not?
indeed, 100 million devices is exactly the number
i’ve been waiting for the industry to compose as
a goal, because if you really honestly truly deliver
a mobile wireless handheld p.c., the effect will be
revolutionary for every person who tries one out,
and so everyone will buy one, and there are what,
like 300 million people just in america, right?, so if
2 out of 3 buy one, you’ve sold 200 million devices,
right? and you have to expect to share those 200
million with your major competitor, which means
you each sold 100 million devices. so that’s right.
this, to me, is the best indication they have a clue.
the absolute best indication.
so i issue a challenge to the makers of the origami:
achieve those 100 million units in sales, even if you
have to drop the price substantially in order to do so.
(look at the poll, price is #1 by a two-to-one margin.)
because that’s a kind of penetration that _demands_
to be noticed, and the services offered should flourish…
oh yeah, and don’t forget your towel…
-bowerbird
Bird, sometimes your irony is so thick it obscures the point you want to make. (I think.)
A year ago, Gates was touting ultra-mobiles and saying how they would have to be under two pounds but one pound was better, and how they could get under $1000 but $800 was better.
Intel told CNET yesterday that the first UMPCs would be out in a few weeks, in more than one variety and with others in the works. And starting at that $800 price point but aiming at $500. For Origami/UMPCs, Intel and Microsoft make their money no matter who manufactures them — they’re counting the same units, not splitting them.
And I’ve fudged too — I think Nokia will sell a pile of Internet Tablets, especially in Europe, and I imagine some quick-acting Asian companies will harvest some of this action on the Pacific Rim. Those wouldn’t be Wintel sales, but they would all be part of the same category, which I think of as e-book-satisfactory carryarounds.
For that matter, the e-ink devices are text-only-e-book-satisfactory carryarounds.
So I’m counting a different group than Microsoft or Intel is counting. But it’s been clear for a good while that a whole new category is emerging. For them, it means a pile of money to be made. For us, it means e-books taking root where they never managed before.
roger said:
> Bird, sometimes your irony is so thick
> it obscures the point you want to make. (I think.)
and sometimes you just miss the point for other reasons. :+)
> But it’s been clear for a good while that
> a whole new category is emerging.
you must be kinda new in this arena… ;+)
the idea of a hand-held full-powered computer
with wireless access to cyberspace is hardly
“a whole new category” that is “emerging”…
the _idea_ has been around for a long time.
what has been lacking is the _reality_…
the reality keeps creeping up on us, but it has been
creeping up on us for a very long time already, and
it’s not absolutely clear that it’s even here quite yet.
you trumpeted the nokia770.
it’s a nice machine, but it’s _not_
the culmination of “the idea”,
not by a long shot.
and i knew that going in because
they _weren’t_ targeting a goal
of 100 million units sold.
and the origami?
well, let’s take a look at it,
_when_ it comes out, to see
if it is the culmination of “the idea”.
maybe it will be, and maybe it won’t.
and even if it is “the culmination”,
it might not be priced right to
make the revolution that it could.
but the thing that gives me _hope_
this time, when my hopes have been
dashed so many times before, is that
there is now talk of selling _lots_ of units
— i.e., _one_hundred_million_. that’s a lot.
it means 1 in 3 people owns such a machine.
if there _is_ a revolution, it will only be
because they sold lots and lots of units.
and _if_ they sell lots and lots of units,
there _will_ be a revolution. can’t help it.
so we need to wait and see
(a) what kind of functionality we get
(b) at what price.
if we get lots of functionality at a good price,
the units will move, and the explosion will happen.
if we get good functionality, but only at a high price,
units won’t move, and the explosion won’t happen.
(that’s why the tablet p.c. fell relatively flat.)
if we get a good price but crippled functionality,
units won’t move, and the explosion won’t happen.
(it’ll be more of a slow burn, the creep we’ve had.)
and if we get crippled functionality
at a too-high price — which is what
i have come to expect these days —
then shit no, the explosion won’t happen.
but if they give us enough functionality
at a good-enough price to sell
one hundred million units, then
the explosion will most definitely happen.
the only thing that matters is how many units move.
everything else exerts itself indirectly through that…
all irony aside, that’s what it all boils down to…
-bowerbird
p.s. and it would be best if 200 million units move,
split between competitors who sell 100 million each,
so they have to compete on the services they offer
(which is where they will make their _real_ money).
p.p.s. the e-ink machines are “dumb terminals” that
will have no effect on this revolution until they slap ’em
on a full-fledged computer. at present, they are distraction.
one more thing.
you have to keep in mind there are
now tablets selling for under $1,000.
not to mention the low-end macs
— which are very nice computers —
also come in at less than a grand…
if the origami isn’t a head-and-shoulders
better buy than these full-on machines,
they aren’t gonna sell 100 million of ’em.
-bowerbird