Netbooks: Passé or just settling down?

On CNet, Erica Ogg poses the question, “So, who’s still buying Netbooks?” She posits that the netbook craze is a tech fad that has been fading over time, citing figures showing the number of netbooks shipped falling quarter to quarter as the manufacturers gear up to jump on the next fad, chasing the popularity of the iPad.

Some have long complained that the netbook is a solution in search of a problem, featuring a too-small screen wedded to a too-small keyboard. The lack of built-in optical media renders installing software a challenge (I’ve spoken to a couple of people in that situation in my tech support day job), and the clunkiness of the form factor means it may not be optimal for e-reading either (though it is possible to adapt).

That hasn’t stopped me from wanting one, and vacillating over whether to blow $150 on one of the slightly outdated Linux Eee refurbs on Geeks.com. But when I take a serious look, I have to admit that the shiny toy factor is not a compelling enough reason to invest given that I have a perfectly serviceable laptop and iPad already.

On Wired’s Gadget Lab, Tim Carmody presents an opposing view. If netbooks are losing a little luster, he suggests that it’s more in the nature of a correction from overinflated expectations. It was a touch unrealistic to expect that the netbook would be the only small-and-light form factor device to appeal.

If, as Forrester Research predicts, netbooks’ market share will dwindle to 17% of the total PC market, that is still a respectable number—better than 1 in every 6 PCs will be a netbook, and that’s only 1% behind desktops’ projected 18% share.

Carmody links to blogger Joanne McNeil’s post explaining why she bought a netbook instead of an iPad. She notes that the smaller device is “a pain in many ways” but also works very well for her in others—the small keyboard is better sized to her feminine fingers than her Macbook’s larger keyboard, for instance.

It seems likely that netbooks will continue to have respectable sales into the foreseeable future, as they fit an ecological niche (small, but with physical keyboard attached and able to run desktop PC software) that no other device does. With that in mind, the CNet post may just be yet another example of the “death of…” articles we’ve been seeing so much of lately: interesting at first, but ultimately speculation without a lot of point.