Wiley‘s Joe Wikert, MobileRead folks, a Boston analyst and others have weighed in on the Kindle’s prospects. Now here an estimate by analyst Mark Mahaney of Citigroup, who, as reported in Tech Crunch, “expects Amazon to generate between $400 million and $750 million in revenue from the Kindle by 2010, or 1% – 3% of Amazon’s total revenue.” So what do you think, gang?
My thoughts: I dunno. Depends on what competitors can cook up. Also, what about the cellphone factor? Could Amazon eventually market cellphones with Kindle-style features built in? If so, what will be a Kindle, and what’ll be a phone?
Hmm…looking at the analysis, then, that’s projecting selling 500,000 Kindles by 2010. Doable, but I’d be very surprised at such high sales #s. If Amazon can do that, the ebook market is certainly a lot more robust than I thought it was.