In mathematics, catastrophe theory is the study of nonlinear dynamical systems which exhibit points or curves of singularity. The behavior of systems near such points is characterized by sudden and dramatic changes resulting from even very small perturbations. The simplest sort of catastrophe is the fold catastrophe.
When a fold catastrophe occurs, a system that was formerly characterized by a single stable point evolves to a system with no stability. The point where stability disappears is known as the tipping point.
One of my goals for this past year was to raise awareness of the tipping point for libraries that will accompany the obsolescence of the print book. In January, I noted that Hal Varian’s equation describing the economic value of libraries also predicts that libraries of the current sort won’t exist for ebooks.
In March, I put the question directly to John Sargent, Macmillan’s CEO. His response, that ebooks in libraries were a “thorny problem” got quite a bit of notice. Unfortunately, the big trade publishers have yet to actually do much to address the thorns.
In May, I was pleased that the editors of Library Journal were putting together an “eBook Summit” virtual meeting to address some of these issues, and even more pleased to be invited to write a series of articles to help frame issues for the Summit. The event ended up being titled ebooks: Libraries at the Tipping Point. For me, the highlight of the summit was Eli Neiburger’s talk on How eBooks Impact Libraries. This talk is destined to be known forever as the “Libraries are Screwed” talk, and if you’ve not viewed it I urge you to do so forthwith.
Several other contributions raising awareness of the library-ebook catastrophe are worth noting. Emily Williams’ commentary on Eli’s talk is worth reading and her attention to the issue has been consistent. Library Journal’s Heather McCormack is another persistent voice- I particularly loved the story she told in a column written for O’Reilly Radar. Tim Spalding’s post on “Why are you for killing libraries is another favorite.
So at the end of the year, what have we accomplished? One disappointment for me was that although Library Journal’s eBook Summit was quite popular with librarians, it appears that very few publishers took notice. On the rare occasions when publishers took notice of the role libraries could play in the ebook future, they tended to be depressingly reactionary, such as when the UK’s Publishers Association set out their plan to marginalize libraries while apparently thinking they were boosting them.
Similarly, Amazon announced yesterday the addition of a lending feature for the Kindle
Meanwhile, adoption of ebooks and ebook readers has accelerated. Amazon announced that the third-generation Kindle is the bestselling product in Amazon’s history. Barnes&Noble fired back, reporting that the NOOKcolor is the best selling product in its history. In comparison, this month’s announcement by Overdrive that it (finally!) has released apps for reading its library ebooks on Android devices and iPhone seems a bit too-little-too-late. (sorry, no iPad version!).
Perhaps the time is over for raising awareness about the catastrophic future of libraries. In 2011, let’s build things that change the system dynamics.
Via Eric Hellman’s Go to Hellman blog
I predict that print books will still exist–or at least be preserved, even if in private home libraries–as long as Amazon keeps deleting ebooks from its Kindles.
honestly i dont like the idea of my tax dollars being spent on a library any more i much rather have it spent on computers and wifi for the tax payer to use.
whats the point of getting up going out spending gas money on a there and back trip and risk being forced to buy the book if my dog decides to eat it.
much rather just download it in around 15 minuts for free.
James writes:
honestly i dont like the idea of my tax dollars being spent on a library any more i much rather have it spent on computers and wifi for the tax payer to use.
I don’t know if you’ve been a library lately but computers and wifi is exactly what you now find in a library.
I can be said that those who have the money do not need to use the library. They prefer to buy their own books. Great for those with money!
However, in today’s economy more and more people are using the library, not to get the next James Patterson, but to apply for jobs online or create resumes using both the library’s book resources and computer software.
Libraries are not soley for the blockbuster title reading. Libraries help lower class mother’s coming in to look for legal resouces because they can not hire a lawyer. Libraries are not DFACs or Foodstamps but they are another resource that down on their luck taxpayers can use to help them get back on their feet.
Oy Vey with the taxes already! Libraries are actually one of the least expensive services that governments provide to the public, and they do more good for people than many other services. As the previous poster commented they provide essential means for the poor to advance themselves. If you want to cut spending, there are far more appropriate targets than libraries.
The Library model is dead and needs to wither in parallel with the demise of the paper book. When there was a physical barrier to borrowing (the need to visit the Library to borrow and return) and a small ‘image’ barrier for some, then the Library model worked and the less well off got to read books. The existence of Libraries hurt the publishing industry but it was manageable and acceptable.
If there is no physical barrier to people borrowing from the physical library; if people can borrow any eBook they chose from their Local or National Library online, within two minutes … then there is then no incentive to buy eBooks from eBook retailers. If all eBook can be borrowed easily and free, then there is no publishing industry anymore.
If Libraries are single mother’s legal aid centres or if they are internet access centres then let’s accept that and adapt their model to accommodate that function and drop the whole Library name and concept. In my own city there is an ample number of internet cafe’s all across the city at very affordable prices of about a dollar an hour. I don’t see the need for Libraries to duplicate this infrastructure.
I keep on and on reading comments about those valuable extras libraries provide, like helping the unemployed write their résumé and stuff, but let’s face it, library core services are built around paperbound books, and once those deadtree blocks become museum artifacts the model will be gone, and libraries will turn into something else, regardless its name.
Libraries are not there for what are regarded as extra, ‘community’ services; sooner or later those services will be provided by other specialized organizations, better funded and focused, maybe inside government agencies.