Just one big trade publisher in time—or lots of book recs online and a nice recovery on the way?

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By David Rothman

Two views from BEA, as captured by Bob Thompson of the Washington Post:

• Mike Shatzkin, book futurist at Idea Logical, “introduced a complex vision of why there might only be one big trade publisher left in 2029 by pointing to what happened to other industries over 20-year spans: network television between 1968 and 1988, newspapers between 1989 and 2009, and the crash-and-burn scenario most frequently cited in discussions of the book business, the music industry between 1980 and 2000.” Mike’s not saying this is a “will,” just a “might.”
• Digitized books provide an “incredible opportunity between readers and writers,” according to Bob Carlton of Librie Digital. As summed up by the Post, he believes that “We’re entering a golden age in which the genius of ‘Gutenberg and Zuckerberg’—the latter would be Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder and CEO of Facebook—are being combined. Friends will hand-sell books to each other online! Meanwhile, the gloomy cloud of what Carlton called ‘FUD,’ or “fear, uncertainty and doom,” that has pervaded the publishing industry is starting to lift. He’s a marketing VP, but even allowing for the optimism that comes with the job, maybe he’ll be right in the long term. Not so sure about the short term. And even long term could use a little help.

Related: New York Times’ gloomy report from BEA.

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