They did transition somewhat to touch navigation and toyed with type size but otherwise the e-ink devices attempted only plain mimicry of their print exemplar. As straight reformats they provide daylight display without scratches. They are a comforting simulation for paper book readers but a failure as a shopping device. They cannot provide the mobile connectivity, news tiling, or comic book display that the hand-held reading future requires. They end as they began; wonderful little electric books.

As Jussi points out, the price of electronics just keeps dropping, if you don’t try to add new features and functions all the time. I paid $115 in 1973 for an electronic calculator. I bought a model with similar capabilities last year for 99 cents.

I expect that the same thing will happen with dedicated ebook readers: some people will find them more convenient for some situations; the devices will become a niche market; and the price of the devices will continue to fall.

On the contrary, text-based e-readers can only get cheaper and lighter.

Media pundits have been declaring (still!) that Apple was doomed for at least the last 2 decades. They’ve been wrong every time. Media pundits get paid to make outlandish pronouncements that generate clicks/advertising dollars. Just like technology/financial consultants do their best to make predictions to raise/lower stock prices so their firms can make a profit.

Although I have had an iPad since the first one came out (and other iOS devices since the first one went on sale) I would actually welcome a cheap ( $50-$75) ereader that supports ePub (not anything proprietary) that I could just throw in my bag when travelling without worrying about it breaking. Not sure it will happen any time soon.

I can’t imagine e-readers going away. My Kindle 3 is marvelous, far lighter and with a much longer battery life than my iPad. It fills a quite useful niche in my life and, like you noted, it’s not something I’ll need to upgrade anytime soon.

I do think that it’d help if the prices came down to the $49.95 range, so there’d be even less of ‘that tablet is only a little more’ temptation. It’d also help if:

* Amazon decides that subsidies make sense, particularly since no one expects an e-reader to get ebooks from multiple vendors. Dedicated devices do make sense, particularly as a way to read that works well outdoors. Who wants to sit in a dark room all the time?

* Someone creates an e-reader that could be configured to work with a particular public library system. The libraries could sell them at cost, and make money on the savings from converting more customers to digital.

* Someone might also create an ebook club. Each month members get their choice of a certain number of ebooks in the categories they’ve chosen. And once purchased, the ebook would be yours as long as you remain a member and without storing it on your device. That should be popular with people who read a lot of novels. And with no shipping costs, prices could be low.

But few people are dedicated and focused readers. When I was a kid I can’t remember a single other kid who constantly carried a book for reading pleasure like I did. So, tablets actually make more sense for most people since they are so much more flexible.

We are looking at at a tablet-centric future world. Tablets won’t just reduce eReaders to a niche product; they will also start taking a big bite out of the desktop computer market. The newer tablets are amazingly powerful little handheld computers in their own right.