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Ebooks 10% of sales by 2011 says Frankfurt Book Fair Survey
September 30, 2009 | 10:03 am
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By Paul Biba
Here are some of the major ebook related items from the survey of 840 of the participants at the Frankfurt Book Fair:
50 % of industry experts see 2018 as the year when digital content will generate more income than traditional content. 41% think that sales will reach 10% in 2011.
The price for an e-book should be
more expensive than the printed book: 4 per cent
as expensive as the printed book: 15 per cent
10 per cent cheaper than the printed book: 11 per cent
20 per cent cheaper: 17 per cent
30 per cent cheaper: 14 per cent
more than 30 per cent cheaper: 16 per cent
a standard price as with Amazon ($9.99): 15 per cent
other price model: 6 per cent
“The accompanying commentary and the tremendous range of opinions it represents demonstrates just how contested this question really is. It is still completely unclear whether or not E-Books will be used merely as a “second book” for a quick glimpse, or whether portions will, in fact, ultimately be sold as mobile content for a price many times higher than the printed work. Also enlightening is the fact that only 35 per cent of those polled count themselves among e-book readers and only 22 per cent use e-readers. The majority of those polled, however, indicate that they never read e-books (65 per cent). Reading online on the screen of a PC or laptop is, with 65 per cent, preferred unequivocally by those polled over the use of special e-readers or multifunctional handhelds.”
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Comments:
Oughtn’t we to distinguish between the publishers who think that e-books are worthless and those who think that they are worth something?
The former will not consider e-books to be a threat to the printed book – merely a marketing tool that at best increases sales of the printed book and at worst makes no difference. They will be completely free to price e-books how they want. Not really expensive, or the e-book will not be bought; and not really cheap, or the e-book will seem worthless and won’t be bought either.
The latter (the publishers who think that e-books are worth something) have a far harder time because they have to worry about e-books displacing sales of hardbacks or paperbacks. Their pricing decisions will be made in a completely different context, with different constraints.
Martin: I expect the former e-book publishers will change when they discover that more and more readers are happily taking their free e-books, and not buying their printed books at all.
I note (with an “I told you so” air) the stats on PC and laptop e-book reading. As I keep saying, don’t count those people out… they are a bigger influence than you think…
I am convinced that no one really reads a whole book on a PC/laptop. If they have ever used a ebook reader, they could NOT say that reading it on a laptop is better. So those comments are skewed by people who haven’t experienced them.
The stated facts seem to contradict you, Richard. And I personally know plenty of people who read on a PC/laptop. For myself, I’ve seen a number of eInk readers, and I don’t like them myself… I’d much rather read on the LCD screen of my PDA. And I am not alone.
People are different. Some people love shiny new Jaguars, and some people love used VW Beetles.
I like to take these surveys with more than a grain of salt. So – in nine years time it is expected that 50%+ of the revenue is “digital content” (whatever that means) and almost everyone agrees at a lower price per unit. This must mean huge losses of volume in traditional books since most of it will be substitution. The most important factor in pricing a p-book is the print run, so such a decrease would drive book prices to a ludicrous height and all but kill traditional publishing as well as the distribution network of bookshops.
I am not saying that this might not happen at some point in time. But just nine years? Don’t think so.
I am one who often reads books on my laptop. I prefer using my PDA or eink reader, but it is not bad to read on the PC. I use a very large font, put the laptop on the coffee table and change pages with it’s remote control while laying on the couch. It is a pleasant way to read a book.