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Cory Doctorow on possible extinction of traditional media
February 22, 2009 | 5:30 pm
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By Chris Meadows
We’ve been talking about the possible extinction of newspapers in a number of TeleRead articles lately, and many e-book readers have long been yearning for the day that e-books “replace” printed books. In a column on internetevolution.com, Cory Doctorow takes a look at the possible fates of newspapers, big-budget movies, music, and books.
Doctorow actually does not have much to say on newspapers. He ties their survival to advertising, looks at the factors tying into the price of an ad…and then does not draw much of a conclusion beyond that, yes, newspapers are probably going to go away. He does not really support this much beyond his assertion that newspaper advertisers are moving to the Internet—an assertion he does not offer any proof to back up.
On movies, he writes longer, but again does not say much. His thesis could be summed up as, “Movies are easier for pirates to sling around than they are for studios to distribute. Therefore, studios are going to have to stop making big-budget movies.” Again, he offers little proof to support this beyond grandiloquent prose.
On music, Doctorow trots out the same old line we’ve been hearing forever about how artists are going to have to make all their money from concerts now that people can download their albums for free. Of course, this does not seem to take into account the fact that millions of people seem to be content to shell out to Apple and Amazon for downloads of music that isn’t even (quite) CD quality.
But in tree-books versus e-books, Doctorow at last manages to make a couple of novel assertions—or at least, assertions we do not hear as much in the war of the book formats. Doctorow sees print books’ problem as being twofold: first, the variety of books seen in non-bookstore locations has declined, because of the rise of the “big box” store chains. Second, the Internet is conditioning readers to read shorter blocks of text for pleasure than the traditional novel.
I think that this one is a toss-up: If I wanted to rescue novels as a culturally relevant mainstream industry (and I do), I’d put the majority of my effort into figuring out ways to get a wide variety of books in front of people who don’t go to bookstores.
That’s my free idea for the month: If you want to save publishing, start a small, hand-crafted “distributor,” complete with a sales force that lays down shoe-leather all day long, knocking on doors at non-bookstores, seeing if they’ll sell a few titles to be re-stocked frequently.
Doctorow does not think that e-book reading devices constitute much threat to print books due to the high price tag. However, he does not consider any potential threat constituted by reading devices such as iPhones that the reader might have gotten already for other reasons.
On the whole, I think Doctorow’s prognostication in this article is more a matter of opinion and wishful thinking than actual insight. The only section of it which shows potentially more insight is where he considers books.
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Comments:
Anything you say about books and piracy can (and should) be said about movies and piracy. Yes, the bandwidth required to steal and deliver a movie is higher than for an eBook, but it’s still digital content with the usual difficulties in protecting it from unauthorized copying. With a price tag in the tens of millions to produce a Hollywood-style movie, the danger that piracy can eventually shut down the studios should not be ignored (of course, maybe we’ll all watch other people’s weddings on MyTube instead of Star Wars).
For better or worse, I think sending thousands of people out beating on the doors of craft stores and brew-pubs hoping to get them to add novels to their inventory is a doomed effort. But more power to you if you can manage it, Cory. One of my authors has persuaded his local game shop to carry his books–because he’s a gamer.
Rob Preece
Publisher, http://www.BooksForABuck.com
Finally something Doctorow and I agree on!
Hand-selling is the only way to ensure survival of the long-form print book. More retail outlets to attract readers that aren’t going to bookstores. Also, smaller numbers of books in each location. It is hard work on the boot leather – I’ve experienced it myself – but it is definitely worthwhile.
As for: ‘the fact that millions of people seem to be content to shell out to Apple and Amazon for downloads of music’ … well, I’d be surprised if the music industry’s revenue on recorded tracks is anything that it once was.
I’m sure the quoted example below suggests the same:
Sydney Morning Herald:
Due to Short Stack’s largely younger, tech-savvy fan base, Diviney says that between 80 and 90 per cent of the group’s songs on PCs and iPods were obtained illegally.
He said the band was in a catch-22 position because, although piracy reduces revenues from CD sales, it is also one of the big drivers of Short Stack’s success as it means more people can experience their music.
That has translated into increased earnings from gig ticket sales and merchandise sales.
“It’s great to see people getting into your music and the fact that they want to download it in the first place, that’s very humbling,” Diviney said.
Steel said the label was looking to entice fans to buy CDs by running competitions but there were plenty of other revenue sources.
“If you’re just looking at selling records you’re not going to last very long,” he said.
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I’m thinking of singing each chapter of my novel in stadium concerts … ticket anyone?!
s-books
The two dominant screen-book providers, Google Print and Amazon Kindle, purse models so different that neither may represent the emergent s-book. Google captures from paper in research libraries while Amazon supplies publishers’ files. Amazon delivers to a proprietary device while Google delivers to any terminal. Google books are free while Kindle books are sold. Google owns its own postings, but the capture scans and source paper copies are owned by libraries and the s-book access is assured. Amazon could turn off its servers, or selectively delete, at any time. Finally, Kindle books are in device format and Google is in print format.
Both of these models, and their delivery products, relate not at all. Users conflate them because of the general features of screen reading including automated search routines. These clues, everywhere, return attention to the eventual roles of the s-book and p-book. Perhaps we should, as suggested, look at the common definer; book.