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On Wired.com, John Siracusa (who I’ve mentioned previously for his insightful look back at the early e-book industry on Ars Technica) looks at the argument being raised in some quarters that Apple should license its iPhone OS to other hardware manufacturers, lest it risk being relegated to a tiny fraction of the mobile market by Android, much as the Mac was relegated to a tiny fraction of the PC market by Windows.

Siracusa is skeptical of this argument, and for good reason. As he points out, the situations are not quite analogous. For one thing, whereas PCs could serve a wide enough variety of needs, and therefore market niches, that a single manufacturer could not hope to fill all of them, it is not clear that this is the case for mobile devices. Unlike the “overpriced” Macs vs. commodity PCs, iPhones’ prices are not appreciably higher than competing devices.

Whether iPhones will be succeed or be relegated to minority player status depends on a number of factors, including device quality, critical mass, and carrier availability. Siracusa points out that Apple really needs to get the iPhone available on more than one carrier—ideally, have it available in all the same phone-company stores that currently sell Android devices.

It’s kind of funny to see an article one day declaring that Apple has dominated the tablet market in a way that makes it hard for competitors to catch up, and then the next find one addressing concerns that Apple might be in danger of minority-player status in the cell phone market. I had thought that the iPhone was already selling better than any competing smartphone while Android was having a hard time taking off.

But then, I once thought nothing could knock Palm off the top of the PDA market, too. How quickly things change.

 
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