Michael Serbinis is CEO of Kobo, and as such his prognostications are of more than a little interest. The following is reprinted, with permission, from his blog:
1. A $99 eReader. Controversial I know, but device makers are pouring into the space and while $99 may not come until 2011, I would not be surprised at all to see it this year. If you are selling an eReader north of $249, it had better sing and dance, clean the house… and make a mean soufflé.
2. The $4.99 Bestseller. Yes, eBook prices are going up, but what happens when some pubs go agency and some don’t? Prices will be all over the map, and publishers and retailers will test all kinds of pricing schemes. We may also see a class action on pubs going with agency.
3. Amazon Launches the Super Kindle. Lab126 (Amazon’s holding company that makes the Kindle) is hiring enough hardware engineers to launch a smartphone, tablet, and a line of high efficiency home appliances. Are they making a SuperKindle? Thanks to the NYT’s Nick Bilton for starting yet another hype cycle for a device that doesn’t yet exist but will descend from heaven and make all our lives better. 5. Google Announces Google Editions. Again. And (a picture of) a Tablet.
6. We will share our eBooks in 2010. Sharing our favorite books is a natural and essential practice. Customers expect it, we’re ready, we just need publishers to come to the table
7. Over 15 million new eReaders sold in 2010. My best guess is that 3-4m were sold in 2009, mostly by Amazon and Sony. Forrester guessed 6m for 2010, but from my perspective they are missing the mark by about 2.5x. New entrants will diminish Amazon and Sony’s share (and I don’t mean B&N).
8. By 2015, At least 50% of eBook sales will come from entrants that don’t even sell hardcopy books today.
9. The Google Book Settlement (G.B.S., let your imagination run with other meanings for the acronym) saga continues. World governments, competitors, authors continue to block Google Books Settlement.
10. We’ll look back at 2009 as the zenith of hardcopy book sales in America.
I would not be at all shocked to see a 5″ eink reader hit US$99 in 2010. It’ll most probably be a sale/promo but it will happen. (Two separate 5″ models have already been spotten on sale at $159 so a $149 retail price by summer is pretty much a given, probably for the Sony PRS-300 or the Kindle Mini. 😉
The real wildcard is Amazon who may chose to switch to a subsidized-hardware business model as a way to grow market share; an option their walled-garden architecture allows that most of their competitors (except Apple) can’t match.
There are pretty solid rumors that the Alex e-Reader, which features the Kobo/Borders store, will be $99, due mid-March. The release regarding $359 for the Alex is outdated (December 09) in my opinion, and came out long before Borders took a large stake in Kobo….the fact that Kobo CEO is making the “prediction” seems to be a tell.
I guess I don’t see what makes sharing books natural. People don’t share underwear and books are just as personal. With most publishers offering free excerpts, it’s easy enough to point your friend to the excerpt. If they like it enough to read it, they can buy it.
With paper, borrowing is possible but those of us who love books hate to lend because we know the chances of getting that book back converge on zero.
I think you’re right about the $99 reader. After all, eBookWise is already there. The question is, how much does Whispernet (or equivalent) cost? I’m betting it’s more than $20, which means that a 3G-equipped reader can’t come in under $99 without an additional monthly fee (hello Apple). And we really do like the ability to order on-line just when we need the book.
Rob Preece
Publisher
Rob: Here’s what’s natural about sharing books:
Andy: “Hi Brenda. I was just wondering if you have any books about Kalman filtering? Only I have to build a Kalman filter to improve this positioning device, and …”
Brenda: “Sure, they’re on the top left shelf in my office – I’d try the one by Smith and Frans, it’s pretty readable.”
Andy: “Neat, thanks. By the way – I’ve finished with ‘C++ for Dummies’, but Charles wanted to have a look. It’s on his desk.”
Not every student who ever spends a fortnight working on a project needs to spend hundreds of pounds buying their very own obscure doorstop publications, especially since they probably will never need them again once a project is over.
And as far as fiction goes, I’m afraid that my mother and I lend books to each other on a regular basis. Why? Well, we have compatible interests – and the shelf space in our houses is too limited for us each to store a copy of everything.
We don’t share our underwear with each other, but then that analogy stinks anyway – the major reason why people don’t share underwear is hygiene, followed somewhere down the line by sizing/fit, preference and convenience. By comparison, I’ve never heard it suggested that you could catch chlamydia, hepatitis, syphilis or genital warts by sharing a second-hand novel 😉
Having owned a Kobo for months now, and lived through the bug ridden updates which have required numerous resets and deletion and reloading of the desktop software, I can honestly say I wouldn’t recommend one to my worst enemy. It’s a great pity that a device with such promise has been let down so bady by pathetic software and non-existent quality testing of updates. Anyone considering a Kobo would be well advised to save themselves the angst and buy any other ereader.